Exit Overhang
Liquidity-aware exit-order stress, portfolio coverage, peer claims, and vault-level evidence.
Exit Overhang answers a portfolio question: if we need to leave this vault, can our current position exit before other holders consume the available liquidity? It is available at /overhang on the Decisioning plan.
Access
The dashboard checks /dashboard/v1/overhang/access before loading portfolio data. The navigation item remains visible; organizations without access receive a locked Decisioning-plan state and no overhang data is requested.
Exit scenarios
For each modeled vault, the dashboard compares the organization's current position with estimated immediately available liquidity under three ordered scenarios:
| Scenario | Calculation |
|---|---|
| Exit now | Available liquidity divided by the organization's position |
| Largest peer first | Liquidity remaining after the largest peer claim, divided by the position |
| Top five peers first | Liquidity remaining after the five largest peer claims, divided by the position |
A ratio below 1.0× means the modeled scenario does not cover a full exit. Ratios are screening estimates, not executable maxWithdraw quotes.
Action bands
| Band | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Clear | The position remains covered after the measured top-five peer scenario |
| Watch | The position is covered after the largest peer, but not after the top five |
| Limit | The current position is covered, but the largest peer can consume exit capacity |
| Exit Review | Estimated immediate liquidity does not cover the current position |
The portfolio KPI counts and review-capital total use these exit-order bands. Holder concentration is retained separately as Crowding context and does not determine the exit recommendation.
Model inputs and coverage
An exit scenario is shown only when all of the following are available:
- a current organization position value;
- on-chain
totalSupplyand at least 95% tracked share-supply coverage; - enough ranked peers to construct the applicable top-five scenario; and
- a current observed-utilization liquidity estimate.
Holder-rank evidence and liquidity evidence are checked independently. Holder ranks must be observed within 48 hours and liquidity within 24 hours; a fresh liquidity estimate cannot make a stale holder snapshot decision-current, or vice versa. Evidence more than five minutes ahead of the verification clock is also withheld. The vault drawer shows both evidence times.
The organization's own wallets are excluded from peer claims. Infrastructure and protocol-owned holders remain in the exit scenario because those shares can also be redeemed. Any untracked share supply is conservatively modeled as one additional peer.
Holder balances and on-chain totalSupply are read at the same finalized block. Indexing, unsupported, unscheduled, and failed positions remain visible as named portfolio rows with their exact state; they are never omitted from the book or folded into a zero.
Portfolio status is decision-current only when the holder model and exit model cover at least 95% of eligible capital, no single unmodeled position exceeds the policy threshold, included evidence is fresh, and portfolio wallet scope is complete. Partial or unavailable inputs never appear as zero.
Vault detail
Opening a vault loads /dashboard/v1/overhang/vaults/{network}/{address}. The drawer shows the scenario ladder, estimated liquidity, first-mover buffer, largest and top-five peer claims, additional capital within the Clear band, tracked and untracked supply, separate holder-rank and liquidity observation times, model limitations, holder rows, client-wallet flags, labels, evidence sources, composition, and secondary crowding history.
Estimated liquidity is derived from current vault TVL and observed utilization. Realized capacity can differ because of liquidations, withdrawal queues, slippage, caps, oracle movement, and governance actions.